Meet Mr. Piechart. He’s going to be the first tool we use in analyzing threat trends in and around our AO. This isn’t a set in stone format but just something to give you an idea of what the tool looks like and how it works.
First thing you’ll notice is that the chart is broken down on the outside rim in time blocks. For clarity sake I set it up in three hour wedge shaped increments. You could go all the way to 24 if you wanted. It should always be in a 24 hour format however. The next thing you’ll notice is that it’s got rings inside of it. Each ring represents a day of the week. So what we have here is a simple calendar. But not so simple it isn’t effective.
The chart works in conjunction with a map.I’ll cover more on maps later on but for now just remember the map.
Whens something happens we mark the incident on the map answering as many of the 5 Ws as we can. That incident also get plotted on our pie chart in the corresponding date and time block. With that first entry we can begin evaluating trending. Trending is the phenomena that occurs due to pattern behavior in humans. I’ll explain.
Let’s say there’s an incident on smith road on Sunday morning at 0100. We plot it on the map and the pie chart. A few days later on Friday morning at 0001 there’s a report of gunfire a little closer – we plot that. And another the next night a break in at 0220 even closer- we plot that as well.
What we can notice is that the break ins or incidents are occurring at roughly the same time (as noted by the pie chart) and in a pattern on the map. So we know we may eventually be in the path and we can plan accordingly. We are now also within the threats OODA loop presuming they continue – which if not faced with serious resistance chances are they will – especially if pickings have been easy.
Remember Mr. Pie Chart. This was an easy one before we get into terrain.