Threat: Fleshing The Picture Out

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle” – Sun Tzu

We’re going to jump into an area we have only briefly touched on and start to flesh the threat picture out.  What is a Threat?  Simply put the Threat is any element with ill intentions toward any part of your tribe or families, friendly tribes or entities, or even the outside world.  In this entry we’re going into the Who and Where part of identifying the threat.   Right off the bat I’m going to break what I consider the  threat into four categories:

Gangs – Criminal groups that identify with popular gang type culture and center around a certain groups influence and position within the culture.  i.e. Crips, MS13, Outlaw Motorcycle Gangs, etc.  This will also include violent ad hoc groups that form after SHTF.

Serious Criminal Enterprises – Criminal organizations that are structured to produce profit in an illegal manner that use illegal means (often force) to achieve their goals. Narco-Cartels like Los Zetas, etc.

Radical groups – Groups or organizations that have a radical ideology that they wish to spread or force on others.  i.e. The Aryan Nation, The Muslim Brotherhood, The Nation of Islam, The New Black Panthers, etc.

Organized Forces – Forces either governmental or private that posses the capability to employ a trained military presence to implement orders or instructions from a designated authority.

Is this all as clear cut as that?  Hell no.  Let’s use Mara Salvatrucha (MS13) as an example.  It’s lower level members form together and act as a gang.  However it is networked internationally like a serious criminal enterprises with ties to the Narco Cartels and also has ties to radical organizations like La Raza.  The organizations can spread across the spectrum of those groups at a lot of different levels.

What’s the exception?  Organized forces.  Most often they are federal, state, or local (can be contracted as well – i.e. Xe or whatever name they are using this week) and may not possess an immediate threat to the tribe (this is an analysis piece folks – don’t go into the weeds on how our rights are being infringed.  I’m aware of it).   They may later on become a Hostile Force if they attempt to remove members of our tribe or their property from either Tribal or Familial control.  I’m holding off on going into organized forces for now so don’t dwell on them.

Are these groups really a threat?  Well hell yeah.  They already are a formed and armed tribes with a command and control system in place.  Most of the folks in those types of organizations I listed take an oath that it’s group above family.  This IMHO is what makes them such a danger.  If the LEOs and .mil jump to ship to protect their own families these threats will remain and in the absence of any authority to challenge them will no doubt grow in both size and force.

OK we’ve broken the threat down into four basic categories.  But we need to find out what organizations that fit those identities exist in and around our AO.  IMHO the most logical way to define our focus area is to start with your AO in the center and draw a line connecting every city with greater than a 2500 person population around your AO and focus on that area.  If it’s less than 20 miles then bump past it to the next one.  Here’s an example map assuming our AO is located just outside of McRae Georgia.

That gives us our Where.  Now we need to identify the Who.  Honestly there are some good sources for what are known criminal activities within our AO.  The FBI gang report, Fusion center products, hell even the Southern Poverty Lie Center puts out maps.  A lot of the State Police websites will contain things like known gang information, Uniform Crime Reports, etc.  Look at all sources and don’t discount any of them even if you disagree with them (i.e. the SPLC).  Also don’t forget to get out and drive those cities.  Look for those territory tags, those Cuts guys are wearing on bikes, etc.  If you come up dry then at least take a look at the FBI 2011 National Gang Threat Assessment.  In the back it has known gangs and criminal organizations broken down by state and that’ll give you some groups to work with.

So we need to look at the actual activity these groups are conducting inside of our “focus area” and we need to identify and develop as many sources of information as possible.  So try to track down any incident in the towns and cities along the ring and inside of our “Focus Area” using any and all sources and track them (remember Tools for Fools?).  Some of those sources could be:

Newspaper articles

Television reports

Scanner traffic

Word of mouth (got Waffle House?)

Police reports (including press reports)

Federal, State, and Local Uniform Crime Reports

Open Source Intel (Public Intelligence is a damn good site)

Those are just examples.  But use every source you can get your hands on.  I’ll tell you right now – if you ask the local PDs gang guy what the threat is in your area he’ll probably be more than happy to fill you in.  They like to talk about their work and although he may not give you any specifics if you walk away with a list of criminal organizations in your area you’ll have benefited.  Use the tools while we’re still paying for them.

Now I’m going to throw you a curveball.  Let’s jump back to our Tribal AO.  Jim down the road just outside of our Tribal boundary is a member of a bike club listed as a known violent Outlaw Motorcycle Gang by the Fibbies.  There’s never been any issues at all with his presence – quite the opposite he keeps low and quiet.  I’ll be frank with you here – he’s a threat in our area.  He may not be a problem for now  but when his Cut brothers show up to hole up at his place you now have a concentrated threat in your area.  One that if you ignore will most likely bite you in the ass.  And it doesn’t have to be an OMG.  It could be the crazy skinhead dude, whatever.  That person and location should have just become your immediate concern.  How you deal with it is up to you and yours.  IMHO you need to watch your timing and keep a serious eye on the location and people at a bare minimum.

Next entry we’re going to cover the What portion of the Threat.  In the meantime here’s some links to do some research.

The Public Intelligence Center – An EXCELLENT source of info.  Spend some time going through their documents.  It’s worth it.

The DoJ Organized Crime and Gang Center

The SPLC Info Center

I want to address that last link.  I’m not a fan of the SPLC.  IMHO they’re shit is entirely too lefty liberally biased and they like to create and over sensationalize Caucasian male boogeymen to support their ties to the current Marxist administration.  But  you use their info as raw data for locations and such and throw the vast majority of their opinion in the toilet where it belongs.  Personally I think Morris Dees and his crowd are full of shit for not including guys like Shabaz on their “baddie list”  Fuck ’em.  Your taxpayer dollars are helping to fund them so you might as well get something out of it.

/Rant off

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About Treaded

Semi-retired career and contract troop. I own and maintain my own small ranch out here in beautiful rural America.
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18 Responses to Threat: Fleshing The Picture Out

  1. Pingback: LF: Threat – Fleshing The Picture Out | Western Rifle Shooters Association

  2. jonathan b says:

    excellent article. lets not forget starving neighbors. I have friends that know i prep and although they think i am a little nuts, both said ” well, if something happens ill just come to you” No. You wont. Then my bug out bag with 2 weeks of food turns into 4 days.

    • CDP says:

      I had the same issue, told them don’t come because I would hate to have to shoot you. They figured out I was serious, one actually started prepping, the other stopped talking to us. I lost a friend but hopefully I won’t have to shoot them. On the bright side I did gain a tribe member.

    • E says:

      That’s a fail or OpSec. Be more careful with who knows you prep food, or prep anything for that matter. The more local the person who knows you prep, the larger the threat, IMHO.

    • Treaded says:

      Excellent find. I haven’t finished going through the Public Intel site but whoever put it together deserves a Pulitzer.

  3. Jimmy the Saint says:

    Good points, but it does overlook some issues. Some of the “threats,” may actually end up being allies, or at least potential ones. Gangs can be a menace, but if you are from their turf area, they will potentially do some fighting for you, since they don’t want outsiders around. Organized crime entities like to keep their home areas pretty quiet, too. Radical groups can also be helpful. If you look like them, they may just jump in on your side in an altercation with anyone who is “other.”

    Be cognizent of who is around you, but don’t automatically label them as enemies.

    • Treaded says:

      Jimmy I don’t advocate it for one reason – there’s always a price to pay when you dance with the devil. Sure they may cooperate now but at what price later? And what if your Tribe isn’t willing (or able) to pay that price? Nope Amigo – once animal always an animal. And that animal will get a helluva lot more viscous as things get worse.

      • Jimmy the Saint says:

        The worse things get, the more people need to be prepared to make deals with the Devil. Look at the list of US allies in any war, for example – usually a pretty nasty rogues gallery. The country has sided with everyone from genocidal dictators to pirates.

        There are rarely any good choices – you have to decide between varying degrees of bad. It sucks, but there it is.

  4. E says:

    Also, there is always the war threat from a neighboring tribe of people that you know right now. A local tribe that you don’t get along with now, like if they feel their land should be theirs, your land used to be theirs, or there is a conflict about the property line, ect. In WROL, SHTF, they may just decide to “take it back” by any means necessary. Never forget that kind of a threat, either. It will be out there. Look at how the Indian tribes battled over territory lines before we got here. I believe it will be very similar with tribes just to your next door. Either they are in your tribe and are helping you out, or you might as well see them as a potential enemy that might just want to take you and yours. That’s as local and in your face as an enemy can get. They are right in your backyard.

  5. Treaded says:

    The next two entries are going to deal with those kind of topics. I’ve been wanting to do a multi-level OPSEC piece and tying it into the end of the threat stuff seems like a logical place to put it.

  6. Cassandra (of Troy) says:

    Treaded,

    One threat aspect you omitted addressing that’s likely to appear after a general societal breakdown is that of the ‘religious’ fanatic/followers. The NoI/NBPP are the most readily recognizable domestic outfits that fit the definition, & their gang based operational style doesn’t disqualify them from placement in that category, imo. Also falling under that heading are Messianic Christian oriented groups of various kinds which history’s shown will arise when things go into the proverbial crapper, & boy do we have lots of those. And then there’s the ‘New Age’ para-/pseudo-religions that’ve sprung up since the ‘glory days’ of the hippie era whose acolytes can be (despite their ‘peace, love, universal oneness, & holistic incontinence prevention for all’ patter) quite bloody minded, all with the best of intentions naturally. Some of the above as well as those you have in Radical Groups might also be categorized as politico-religious/religio-political given their behavior & direction, adherents of Socialism/Communism also fall into that description & could be considered archetypal.

    Cassandra (of Troy)

    • Treaded says:

      Actually I did. “Radical groups – Groups or organizations that have a radical ideology that they wish to spread or force on others.” That covers any ideology based group.
      Stupid wordpress keeps cutting me off when I try to reply.

  7. The so-called “OMGs” are generally – mostly – just like us, but actually willing to stand up and fight for their Liberty TODAY.

    In my experience – extensive in my misspent yoot’ – they’re actually good guys provided you treat them with the respect you want for yourself! Don’t ever back down, even if it means taking a beating you’ll earn the respect of people who are truly the most loyal of friends. Most of them are NOTHING like you think.

    None of this applies if you happen to be a member of an enemy club – obviously – but then you’d know all of this already…

    I had some significant and extensive interactions with a well-known “1%er Club” a couple thousand miles away and almost 25 years ago now, and haven’t had any real contact with them since. Still, I can recall the names of at least a dozen of them, including the Chapter Officers at the time. When I ended my association, I was at a “decision point” where I was either going to embrace the Club – and all that went along with that – or move on and choose a different lifestyle. I made plain that I respected and liked those I’d gotten to know, but I realized that the Club-life just wasn’t the direction I wanted to go… I was told “If you change your mind…” and “if you ever need ANYTHING, all you have to do is call.”

    I’m willing to bet that if I were to call any of them now – EVEN AFTER 25 YEARS – and tell them I needed help, they’d call my closest Chapter and within a couple of hours AT MOST I’d have some serious muscle come rolling in on some serious iron, and even though I’d never met one of the locals before they’d be ready to do battle in my defense. You’ve never known more loyal people in your life, and “the word” from one brother is good enough for all of them!

    Most importantly, they don’t abide scumbags any more than you would – those guys trust each other with their literal lives and hence unstable, untrustworthy people just aren’t around for long…

    In sum, don’t make enemies of those that might make damn good friends! They might just save your life someday!

    Forced to choose, come SHTF, I’d rather have a 1% clubhouse in my AO than a cop-shop (remember Katrina!) or a bunch of “christian Taliban” (hardcore fundamentalists) types! They may appear to live by different rules, and to a certain extent they do, but they’re at least as on-board with honor, courage and Liberty as anyone else I’ve ever met!

    $0,02…

    • Treaded says:

      “None of this applies if you happen to be a member of an enemy club – obviously – but then you’d know all of this already…”

      Or maybe someone with resources they want/need after TSHTF and they get desperate? A threat is a threat and those that have demonstrated violence or lawlessness are a threat. If you’re comfortable with them in your AO then good for you. I personally ain’t.

  8. Pingback: Defense – Obstacles Part I: Introduction | The Lizard Farmer

  9. Pingback: Putting Some Teeth in the Tribe: What Do We Need To Be Able To Do? | The Lizard Farmer

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