“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle” – Sun Tzu
We’re going to jump into an area we have only briefly touched on and start to flesh the threat picture out. What is a Threat? Simply put the Threat is any element with ill intentions toward any part of your tribe or families, friendly tribes or entities, or even the outside world. In this entry we’re going into the Who and Where part of identifying the threat. Right off the bat I’m going to break what I consider the threat into four categories:
Gangs – Criminal groups that identify with popular gang type culture and center around a certain groups influence and position within the culture. i.e. Crips, MS13, Outlaw Motorcycle Gangs, etc. This will also include violent ad hoc groups that form after SHTF.
Serious Criminal Enterprises – Criminal organizations that are structured to produce profit in an illegal manner that use illegal means (often force) to achieve their goals. Narco-Cartels like Los Zetas, etc.
Radical groups – Groups or organizations that have a radical ideology that they wish to spread or force on others. i.e. The Aryan Nation, The Muslim Brotherhood, The Nation of Islam, The New Black Panthers, etc.
Organized Forces – Forces either governmental or private that posses the capability to employ a trained military presence to implement orders or instructions from a designated authority.
Is this all as clear cut as that? Hell no. Let’s use Mara Salvatrucha (MS13) as an example. It’s lower level members form together and act as a gang. However it is networked internationally like a serious criminal enterprises with ties to the Narco Cartels and also has ties to radical organizations like La Raza. The organizations can spread across the spectrum of those groups at a lot of different levels.
What’s the exception? Organized forces. Most often they are federal, state, or local (can be contracted as well – i.e. Xe or whatever name they are using this week) and may not possess an immediate threat to the tribe (this is an analysis piece folks – don’t go into the weeds on how our rights are being infringed. I’m aware of it). They may later on become a Hostile Force if they attempt to remove members of our tribe or their property from either Tribal or Familial control. I’m holding off on going into organized forces for now so don’t dwell on them.
Are these groups really a threat? Well hell yeah. They already are a formed and armed tribes with a command and control system in place. Most of the folks in those types of organizations I listed take an oath that it’s group above family. This IMHO is what makes them such a danger. If the LEOs and .mil jump to ship to protect their own families these threats will remain and in the absence of any authority to challenge them will no doubt grow in both size and force.
OK we’ve broken the threat down into four basic categories. But we need to find out what organizations that fit those identities exist in and around our AO. IMHO the most logical way to define our focus area is to start with your AO in the center and draw a line connecting every city with greater than a 2500 person population around your AO and focus on that area. If it’s less than 20 miles then bump past it to the next one. Here’s an example map assuming our AO is located just outside of McRae Georgia.
That gives us our Where. Now we need to identify the Who. Honestly there are some good sources for what are known criminal activities within our AO. The FBI gang report, Fusion center products, hell even the Southern Poverty Lie Center puts out maps. A lot of the State Police websites will contain things like known gang information, Uniform Crime Reports, etc. Look at all sources and don’t discount any of them even if you disagree with them (i.e. the SPLC). Also don’t forget to get out and drive those cities. Look for those territory tags, those Cuts guys are wearing on bikes, etc. If you come up dry then at least take a look at the FBI 2011 National Gang Threat Assessment. In the back it has known gangs and criminal organizations broken down by state and that’ll give you some groups to work with.
So we need to look at the actual activity these groups are conducting inside of our “focus area” and we need to identify and develop as many sources of information as possible. So try to track down any incident in the towns and cities along the ring and inside of our “Focus Area” using any and all sources and track them (remember Tools for Fools?). Some of those sources could be:
Word of mouth (got Waffle House?)
Police reports (including press reports)
Federal, State, and Local Uniform Crime Reports
Open Source Intel (Public Intelligence is a damn good site)
Those are just examples. But use every source you can get your hands on. I’ll tell you right now – if you ask the local PDs gang guy what the threat is in your area he’ll probably be more than happy to fill you in. They like to talk about their work and although he may not give you any specifics if you walk away with a list of criminal organizations in your area you’ll have benefited. Use the tools while we’re still paying for them.
Now I’m going to throw you a curveball. Let’s jump back to our Tribal AO. Jim down the road just outside of our Tribal boundary is a member of a bike club listed as a known violent Outlaw Motorcycle Gang by the Fibbies. There’s never been any issues at all with his presence – quite the opposite he keeps low and quiet. I’ll be frank with you here – he’s a threat in our area. He may not be a problem for now but when his Cut brothers show up to hole up at his place you now have a concentrated threat in your area. One that if you ignore will most likely bite you in the ass. And it doesn’t have to be an OMG. It could be the crazy skinhead dude, whatever. That person and location should have just become your immediate concern. How you deal with it is up to you and yours. IMHO you need to watch your timing and keep a serious eye on the location and people at a bare minimum.
Next entry we’re going to cover the What portion of the Threat. In the meantime here’s some links to do some research.
The Public Intelligence Center – An EXCELLENT source of info. Spend some time going through their documents. It’s worth it.
I want to address that last link. I’m not a fan of the SPLC. IMHO they’re shit is entirely too lefty liberally biased and they like to create and over sensationalize Caucasian male boogeymen to support their ties to the current Marxist administration. But you use their info as raw data for locations and such and throw the vast majority of their opinion in the toilet where it belongs. Personally I think Morris Dees and his crowd are full of shit for not including guys like Shabaz on their “baddie list” Fuck ’em. Your taxpayer dollars are helping to fund them so you might as well get something out of it.