First off if you ain’t sweating already then you’re likely still asleep so maybe the question should really be “When do we really start sweating? If the Who part didn’t wake you up then I dunno what will. Anyway in this entry I’m going to do some wargaming and get a best guesstimation of when the threat will increase to the point of “Constant Significance”. Constant Significance, WTF is that? That’s the point you need to address it and be concerned constantly – in other words expect to get hit.
For this entry I’m going to do a bit of wargaming. Wargaming is basically a system whereby you run a given scenario out with known and assumed information to determine logical outcomes. The phrase “Conflict Simulation” might be more appropriate there but we’re sticking to wargaming for now.
Right off the bat: I’m presenting an example here. It’s not intended to be ultra-realistic. It does use information I know to be true however it also assumes things I haven’t completely fleshed out yet. Normally before you begin wargaming you try to exhaust all of your Intel sources to reduce your guesses to as close to none as possible. The more you have to guess then the more you need to assume your model is going to be flawed. Also this model uses what I call a “Civil Disturbance” model. There’s others, i.e. a Patriot Stand, .Gov crackdown, etc. And when I refer to .Gov in this model I refer to all branches – the Military, DoJ, DHS, etc. ad naseum.
With that out of the way let’s set this up. I’m throwing an assumed date out – Day Zero. An event has occurred that will trigger widespread rioting and chaos. TSHTF in the majority of large urban centers with populations over 25k and spreads to towns as small as 10k. So let’s look at the example timeline.
Notice our left boundary is our Day Zero. Widespread rioting and looting has broken out. It’s a known that initially LEOs and National Guard will respond (a historically proven fact). An assumption I make here is that due to the size, number, and operational tactics of the Violent Groups (VGs) we indexed that those forces alone probably won’t be able to contain it. Now you notice that yellow bar that turns red labeled “Threat Lethality”? That is an index we establish of how lethal any given threat could be to us at any point in time. You have to take into account your tribes readiness in coming up with that. Balance the threat capabilities vs. your own. So after about two weeks I assume the numerically superior VGs will most likely gain initial dominance. That’s a trigger point at which I’m predicting El POTUS would declare the Insurrection Act and send in the .Gov – sometime roughly between Day 15 and Day 20 at the latest. Notice at Day 20 our lethality index jumped from Amber to Red? That’s because we have to assume that our VGs are now in control of some of the equipment that the LEO and NG forces had. Doing some digging I found out that the National Guard Armory in my lil ‘ol town is a Headquarters unit not equipped with anything heavier than softskin HMMWVs but they do have a substantial arms room. Bad juju. At this point we can expect the authorities established localized curfews, checkpoints and such to pretty much just fall the hell apart until the .Gov forces try to assume them.
Anyhow – during this time I’m also assuming those neat bastions of man known as the cities are being picked clean and burnt out – I used how long it took large sections of LA to go to shit during those riots as a quasi model for the time estimation. This will likely create some waves of refugees trying to GTFO before they become casualties. Awesome – that’s another issue we have to deal with (I’ve got an entry in the que for that). And with those urban centers being picked clean and the .Gov trying to deploy and contain violence plus deal with refugees it’s going to be ugly – imagine the debacle that was Katrina a thousand fold with stretched thin federal agencies tripping over each other and in the midst of that insanity our VGs not only facing them but beginning to strike out from those urban centers (even possibly completely displacing) to satisfy their needs. So from our perspective Day 15 on looks pretty damn horrible. With the cities and most larger towns trashed we can pretty well assume that urban resettlement operations should be a given and is probably going to be the .Govs focus. So if our VGs have struck out to the rural areas we need to be ready. That’s the logic behind going from Amber to Red.
Wargaming further I would estimate there’s a possibility that the .Gov manages to get shit under control at around D30. So there might be some stability around then but what could be the worst case scenario? Martial Law and possibly even a UN Peacekeeping presence.
Now I throw a monkey wrench in the works. Shit has gotten bad enough that the Militia and Patriot movement get offa their asses and begin to defend their areas and conduct attacks against the VGs. Given the nature of the Patriot Movement and the topic of “Resettlement Operations” I just can’t fathom that they would go after VGs alone so that is the point I assume that the threat becomes truly asymmetric with multiple forces going against each other. That could possibly alleviate some of our threat or it could increase it. Better to stay wired for sound eh?
Now at D45 to 90 I let the timeline go. There’s no real telling how long things could play out. But we can assume so logical outcomes:
The first is that there’s a possibility the .Gov forces gain and achieve control. Once again worst case scenario we’re looking at Martial Law and Peacekeepers.
Secondly there’s also a chance that the presence of the Militia forces could create local and even possibly regional stability. The outcome of that IMHO is unpredictable however I think the worst case guess is Cooperation with the .Gov forces resulting in Martial Law but I won’t put money on that outcome. If anything it would likely result in a long grind as things go back and forth. Not a climate that fosters Liberty.
Finally the uglier side of the picture is that we assume the VGs have managed to gain local or regional dominance. IMHO at that point I assume they would manage to acquire heavier arms and possibly .Gov grade armored vehicles. Although I find it hard to assume they would be able to exert larger than a regional area control this is bad if we’re in that area. The threat has become paramount and constant. So we now have VGs controlling some regional areas. Remember the cities are trashed so at this point there’s a good possibility that the .Gov would try to begin Rural resettlement ops to remove folks from what it would consider the threat area. Shit just keeps getting deeper, eh?
Well this rosy fricking picture is our example assumption of “When”. And that’s just based off of one instigating scenario. Do your homework, gather your intel, flesh out the Ws (Who, What, Where, When, and the motivation behind said groups gives you your Why) and try developing your own timelines through wargaming. Always assume the worst and always assume time is not your friend.